Dave’s Discussion – Weather 11/09/15

November is more than a quarter way done, and in the books is a much warmer than normal start.   Temps have pushed almost 7.5 degrees above normal for the first 8 days of the month.   We will not reverse those numbers this week, but that number will be cut down as temps will be much more November-like this week.   I expect overall temps will be about a degree above normal this week as a whole, buoyed by warmer than normal overnight temps due to clouds.

Rain tonight…. really?
11-09 weather

Yes, after the sunny start we had today, there is a weak system to our south that will move north, and increase clouds though the day and into tonight.   It also should start to moisten up our atmosphere, which eventually will lead to some rain showers, mainly after sunset for most of us, and will end before sunrise for all.


The bigger issue for this week… a much stronger system and cold front for the mid-week.

What makes weather fun, is when it changes, or when its 75 & sunny every day 🙂   By the middle of the week, we will have a few features coming together that should provide us with rain, winds, and a shift of weather pattern.

We will have another low developing to our southwest and pushing northeast.   Along with that, there will be an increased amount of low-level winds (about a mile above the earth).  Winds at this level could exceed 60knots/70mph.  The higher up the winds pick up a lot more too, with a 100kt wind overhead, and strong jet streak just to the south of our area.
11-09 winds

At this point I think the biggest threat overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning would be strong gusty winds with the system.   Obviously any lightning would be an added danger, but winds should be the biggest threat.

11-09 spc day 3

One thing that should work in our favor is the timing.   It appears this is going to be a late Wednesday/early Thursday arrival, which means most like 6 hours of darkness ahead of the system, and 8-10 hours after peak heating.   Temperatures at this time should be in the lower 50s at this point.  This will be our biggest feature to watch this week.   Behind this system, expect temps to fall a few degrees below normal in the low 50s, with some near freezing mornings in the city, and sub-freezing outside the city.

Hurricane Season is not over yet…..
11-09 kate

11-09 Kate waves

Welcome to the show, Kate!   Tropical Storm Kate formed last night near the Bahamas.   It should skirt the eastern side of the Islands of the Bahamas the rest of today, then start to steer to the northeast, and brush far west of Bermuda.   Officially, Atlantic Hurricane Season ends in a few weeks, although, that does not mean storms are done.  In fact, we have had storms form after the end, and before the start of the season.

Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005 formed on December 30th and Hurricane Alice in 1954 were the latest forming Tropical Storm and Cat. 1 Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.   Coincidentally, the latest forming Cat. 2 strength Hurricane was Kate, in 1985.

Below is a semi-primitive looking graphic of Kate from 1985, making landfall in the Panhandle of Florida late on November 21st.

kate 1985

(graphic is from the National Hurricane Center, full graphics on 1985 Kate http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1985-prelim/kate/)

In a crazy twist, around that same time, in November of 1985 we were on a roller coaster of temperatures.  We had our warmest day of the month on the 19th at 73, and then our coldest temperature of that month just two days later.  That 73 on the 19th still stands as the warmest temperature recorded on November 19th here in Columbus.

19th 73 61
20th 69 30
21st 39 25
22nd 42 36

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