Dave’s Discussion – Weather 11/18/15

Typical Ohio Weather!!!   Its near 70 this afternoon, in mid/late November.  This is so uncommon for this time of year, and about the exact opposite of November 18th a year ago.   Look below at the stats from the last 2 years compared to the normal.   For highs, low, snow cover, and awesome factor (a completely made up factor that tells what it felt like, but makes sense).

Nov 18th High Low Snow Cover Awesome Factor
2015 70 57 None 10+
2014 19 12 3″  –
Normal 52 35 0 4

(the current high is 68, we might end the day slightly warmer)

You can see that we are nearly 50 degrees warmer today than a year ago.   Our current high should end up roughly 16-18 degrees above normal, and our morning low might end up being a record for the date as well.   The old record for the warmest low temp was set back in 2007 at 56.   57 would be 22 degrees above normal.   Last year we were 33 degrees below normal for the high, a record for the coldest high for the date, and we were 23 degrees below normal for the low.

We also had 3+” of fresh, frozen snow on the ground.   By this point the snow had a day or so to wear off its beauty and become mainly grey looking too… blah!   The “awesome factor”… it might change by the end of the day, but even with rain and gusty winds, this is pretty much a major bonus day for this time of year.   On the opposite side, last November 18th was about as terrible as it gets for a November 18th.   I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, or anything (cars included).

Ok, so what about snow for this weekend?

This is the question that everyone is wondering about right?   Well, the forecast models are coming into slightly better agreement and still in line with the forecast we talked about yesterday.   One thing I think we can pull out of the forecast is the chance of showers/snow showers in the morning.   It appears the moisture will not arrive til mid-day when the temperatures are at their very small peaks.

The other hidden issue Saturday…. wind!

I still do not expect a lot of moisture with this little system on Saturday, but anything that falls is going to make it feel cold… like real cold.   Oh yea, and the winds, they are going to be breezy to gusty at times.   Wind chills will remain in the 30s at best Saturday with 20s by dark and beyond.  In fact wind chills could fall into the teens overnight Saturday night into Sunday.

Saturday Noon 3pm 6pm 9pm
Temp 41 43 36 33
Chill 34 36 25 23

How much snow do we see and when on Saturday?
The image below is from our in-house forecast model, I have plotted the position of the low and the frontal boundary for 3pm on Saturday.   I also plotted the past and future low positions to give you an idea of where this model has the low and moisture associated with it moving.  This model is slightly warmer, drier, and keeps the moisture wrapped around the low and the front rather moisture starved for Saturday.   This model still gives mixed late day snow flurries along and north of I-70 with slightly higher totals more north.

11-18 low position

Below is the NAM model forecast for Saturday.   You notice the position of the low is a little more north, and slower as well.   However, this model has some wrap around moisture on the backside of the front going a bit more south.   With that track, Saturday would be slightly less cold, and Saturday night after midnight might seem some snow showers well north of I-70

 

11-18 nam position

Interestingly, the GFS model continues to be the coldest of the models in our set.   It also takes the low a bit more south than just about every other model.   It also puts more moisture along the frontal boundary.   It outputs light accumulations for Columbus as well for Saturday night/overnight.

11-18 gfs

Finally (below), I here is a look at the Canadian Forecast Model (http://meteocentre.com/) This latest run is a bit colder, and more south than the previous model, but is pretty much inline with my forecast for Saturday.  It has the low tracking from near St. Louis Saturday morning, to near Toledo, and to Toronto by Sunday morning.   It also is showing a mix of rain/snow for Saturday evening.

11-18 gemglb12_PT.23

Bottom line… how much snow do we see?

Lets start here.   This is our in-house model run through Sunday morning.

11-18 snowfall totals

While some areas appear a 0.0, it’s not to say they will not see snowfall either, it’s just that it will melt on contact and accumulations will be under 1/10th of an inch, and will be mixed with light cold rain showers.  To the north, I think it’s entirely possible that we could see a light dusting to very minor accumulations in grassy surfaces or on top of metal surfaces (like the roof of a car).  These numbers above are just one of the model run, and changes to these numbers are likely.   In the case of the snowfall above 0.1″ of snowfall would be the equivalent of 0.01″ of rainfall.   So some minor tweaks will occur to fine tune this as the position and track of the low come into play late week.

Buckeyes Game… what do I prepare for?

Cold weather, and some light rain showers after kickoff, maybe a few light snow showers mixed in by the 4th quarter.   If it’s a pass heavy game, maybe snow showers mid/late 3rd quarter.   Wind chills are also going to have quite a bite, so bundle up in major layers.   Plus, we have all gotten used to this nice weather the last week, so it will be a shock again Saturday.

 

As the information keeps coming in, we are fine tweaking the forecast for Saturday, so stay tuned!

-Dave

 

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