Dave’s Discussion – Weather 11/19/15

Too bad we can’t replay yesterday.   We had a high temperature just 2 off the record for the date, topping off at 71 degrees, and the low for the day of 57 was the warmest low temperature recorded for November 18th.

Sadly, November 19th welcomed a different air mass to our area.   It started off nice with sunshine, but a round of clouds and a 2nd push of cooler push of air is moving in with a high.   This will give us clearing skies tonight and a freeze for most and even a hard freeze expected in spots tonight as winds will relax.

What about this snow this weekend?!

This has been the thing we have been watching closely the last few days, because lets face it, we have some big things happening this weekend (Buckeyes, Crew, and first snow of the season, and a lot more).

Well as stated in the previous days, this would be a system where we needed to keep a close watch on the track of the low and the timing of it.  As we close in on the weekend, the forecast models are coming into line a bit more on where the low will track.   It still looks like our forecast for a dry start to Saturday should hold, with light rain showers forming in the afternoon, that could change to some light snow flurries mixed in on the backside Saturday night.

Lets start with out in-house model (below) and its snowfall totals through 9am Sunday.   These numbers are slightly less than yesterday (not a huge difference maybe 0.1″).   The reason is, the position of the low seems to be a bit more to the north than yesterday.   This would bring in slightly warmer (more like less cold) air.   This will mean a mostly light rain showers event, with a few flurries on the backside Saturday night, which is likely.  It’s also inline with our previous and current forecast for Saturday.

11-19 bams snowfall

So here is the position of the low and front on our in-house model (below) at 9:30pm Saturday night.

11-19 bams 2130 front

I fast forwarded this model to 2am Sunday morning to show you when the light snow showers on the back side of the low would move in.   You can thanks our northwest winds for the chance of light snow flurries overnight too.   It will also usher in the colder air mass that will keep us in the 30s Sunday afternoon.

11-19 bams 0200 front

Because I have been showing you all multiple models, below is the NAM and it has a brief rain shower event near sunset on Saturday, and then a few light flurries to the northwest, but also lifts the low away from us Saturday night.

11-19 nam

Finally, here is the GFS… the model that will not play nice with the rest.  It continues to bring the coldest air down to our area.  It also is a little slower with the moisture arriving, which would play into this being a more snow shower than rain shower event.   I think this model is wrong in position, temperature, and timing.   But in all fairness, I have been showing this the last few days, so I thought I would do it again.   I will note, this model collapses almost all the moisture before hitting the 71 corridor, and does not put any measurable snow down anymore for Columbus.

11-19 gfs

On a last note, if you have friends or family across the Great Lakes, they might have some great snow pictures for you the next few days as this system pushes through.   Below is a map of the advisories/watches/warnings that have been issued.

The purple color represents Winter Weather Advisories.   The blue color over almost all of Iowa and parts of Illinois and Wisconsin, is a Winter Storm Watch (most likely will be upgraded tomorrow).   The brown shading is a wind advisory.   Oh yes, it’s going to get windy again this weekend, even here.   Yay Late November weather!!!

11-19 wwa

Stay warm… Turkey Day is looking warmer ahead of another bigger system for next weekend.

-Dave

 

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