Dave’s Discussion – Weather 12/7/15

It was an interesting weekend, where fog and low clouds kept some of us in the cool, and brought slightly above normal temperatures for the rest of us.   The pattern is going to be a favorable one for the rest of the week for us as warmer temperatures are going to be the rule.

Is this December going to be a lot better than December of 2014?   

One of the things I hear a lot is how this December is a lot better than last December so far.   In the Winter 2014-2015 season, December was the only real bright spot.   Check out below the difference compared to normal for November-March, and this November through the first 6 days of December.

Month Dept. from Normal
Nov-14 -6.6
Dec-14 2.5
Jan-15 -3.6
Feb-15 -13.5
Mar-15 -4
Nov-15 4.2
Dec-15 1.2

So that mild-ish type start to Meteorological Winter  (December) set us up for a very sharp turn into January and one of the coldest months on record here in February.   Also, if you remember, we only had a few flurries in December as well, recording officially only a trace of snowfall for the entire month.

However, with temperatures this week, I do expect the first half of December 2015 to be well above normal, thanks to this week.

So what are we expecting this week as far as temperatures?

Right now, we are a small 1.2 above normal for the first 6 days of the month.   But with normal temperatures falling a couple of degrees this week, and actual forecast temperatures forecast to soar to near records, we are going to see quite a boost to the average for the month.
12-7 temp diff

I think by the end of the next 7 days we could be almost 8 degrees above normal for our average for the month.

Record temperatures possible, or near… what does that mean?

Here is a list of record highs this week.   I think there is no chance of getting near a record until the end of the week/weekend.

Record High
Dec 7th 69
Dec 8th 69
Dec 9th 66
Dec 10th 72
Dec 11th 66
Dec 12th 65
Dec 13th 65

What happens after this warm week, do we get slammed for next week, or does it continue abnormally warm?

The great news is the outlook appears to keep us above normal into next week too.   In fact, the longer range models appear to keep things mild until at least the end of next week.   Yes we could see some ups and downs, but it appears the trend will stay warmer.   In fact, below is the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (Dec 14-20).   It shows almost the entire state with a 70% or higher chance of having above normal temperatures.

12-7 outlook

Bottom line… keep the jackets and flip-flops out for a few more weeks… well maybe just the jackets 🙂

Enjoy the mild weather for the first half of the month.  Even though its only the 7th day of December, I would say its pretty safe bet that this month will end up being warmer than normal as a whole, based on the first half of the month.   As far as the snowfall, well, I think it’s probably better chances than not that we get more snow than December 2014.   Only because any snow would be more.

Don’t forget to check out our Storm Team 4 weather app too.   Search ‘nbc4i wx’ in your app store.   Its free, and has tons of great tools on it, including radar, temperatures, road conditions, and can even get personalized alerts.

-Dave

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