2016 Barnes Bracketology – Mar. 10

COLUMBUS, Ohio – 3 days and counting. Instead a long drawn out intro here, let me cut to the chase. My field is pretty much set. There will be a few tweaks here and there but nothing huge. I am also making some definitive calls in a few areas that I will detail below. And finally, from this point on, we are going DAILY! The hope is to have the brackets out by noon each day, except on Sunday, which will likely come around 3-3:30pm.

MY PROJECTED FIELD OF 68
(changes in italics)

LOCKS: First thing, Kansas is the overall number one seed, no matter what happens in the Big 12 Tournament. Villanova is about 90% secure as a 1 seed. Virginia and Oklahoma are not as safe. Teams like Xavier, Oregon, UNC, and MSU winning their conference tournaments could very well push them out. I expect Oklahoma to drop to a 2 seed because of that scenario but for now, they stay where they are. I added Pittsburgh to the list, thanks to their win vs. Syracuse in the ACC Tournament.

 


LOCKS (37): Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina, Utah, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Duke, Maryland, Purdue, California, Iowa State, Texas, Texas A+M, Arizona, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Colorado, Texas Tech, Providence, Saint Joseph’s, Seton Hall, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, USC, St. Bonaventure, Wichita State 

AUTOS: Good amount of change here as there have been a TON of upsets in the conference tournaments. A lot of the top seeds fell, allowing some other teams to get the automatic invite.

Teams that have clinched their berth will appear in bold

 

AUTOS (25):America East – Stony Brook, American – Temple, Atlantic SunFlorida Gulf CoastBig Sky – Weber State, Big SouthUNC-Asheville, Big West – Hawaii, ColonialUNC-Wilmington, Conference-USA – UAB, HorizonGreen Bay, IvyYale, MAACIona, MAC – Akron, MEAC – Hampton, Missouri ValleyNorthern Iowa, Mountain West – San Diego State, Northeast Fairleigh Dickinson, Ohio ValleyAustin PeayPatriotHoly Cross, SouthernChattanooga, Southland – Stephen F. Austin, SWAC – Texas Southern, SummitSouth Dakota State, Sun Belt – AR-Little Rock, WCC – GonzagaWAC – New Mexico State

 

 

AT-LARGE: And now, we are down to 6 teams fighting for spots in the field (in my estimation). Butler feels safe to me. Vanderbilt not as much. And then the last 4 teams here could go either way for me. Monmouth and Saint Mary’s had chances to lock up their spot in their conference tournament championship games but lost. Now, they are the mercy of the committee and the bubble teams below who could pass them up with good conference tournament showings. For now though, I think they have done enough to warrant a spot in the field.

 

These are in order, so the last four teams will be playing in the “First Four” in Dayton.

 

AT-LARGE (6): Butler, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary’s

 



BUBBLE WATCH

 

BUBBLE: I’ll be honest here. This is a large list of bubble teams but the only teams that really have a shot to win a game or two and get into the field are probably just UConn, Tulsa, Florida, Michigan and Alabama. The rest of this group after them probably only gets in if they win the entire conference tournament. And for a couple like Valparaiso and Syracuse, their seasons are over as are their chances of improving their resume. Deleted BYU, Florida State, and Clemson as all have seen their seasons end as well.

 

These are in order, so to figure out the first teams out, head to the final team from the AT-LARGE category and look for all the teams behind them.

BUBBLE (22): Butler, Vanderbilt, Temple, Cincinnati, Monmouth, VCU, Saint Mary’s, Syracuse, Tulsa, UConn, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Michigan, Florida, Alabama, Ohio State, Houston, Georgia Tech, George Washington, LSU, Virginia Tech, Georgia

SEEDING

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), Big East (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), American (2), MAAC (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2)

COMING IN: Gonzaga, Iona, Green Bay, Holy Cross, UNC-Wilmington, Fairleigh Dickinson,
GOING OUT: Syracuse, Tulsa, Hofstra, Valparaiso, Lehigh, IPFW, Wagner

Teams highlighted in green moved up in seeding since last bracket.

Teams highlighted in red moved down in seeding since last bracket.

(Click on bracket to enlarge)
MIDWEST vs. WEST
EAST vs. SOUTH

**Kansas is the overall top seed

GAMES TO WATCH
Northwestern vs. Michigan – Michigan needs to avoid the upset here. A win keeps them alive. A loss puts the nail in the coffin.
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina – Pittsburgh is in as is UNC. But #1 seed dreams for UNC end with a loss here.
Georgetown vs. Villanova – Nova probably just needs to make the semifinals of the Big East tourney to lock up that 1 seed.
Arkansas vs. Florida – Florida may need to get to the SEC Tournament championship to have a real chance.
Butler vs. Providence – If Butler can get this one, they’ll be in really good shape. Providence is the kind of team that can make it happen.
Saint Louis vs. George Washington – GW is on life support.
Washington vs. Oregon – Washington is on life support as well. Oregon still has that outside shot at a 1 seed.
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt – Vandy needs this one and maybe another if they want to rest easy on Sunday.
Penn State vs. Ohio State – A win here for OSU does nothing for them. A loss means NIT.
Alabama vs. Ole Miss – Ole Miss can play NCAA spoiler here. Alabama needs to make a run.
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia – GT needs this win and still some others. UVA needs it to keep the 1 seed they are currently in.
Marquette vs. Xavier – If Villanova loses early and Xavier wins the tournament, Xavier has a real shot of cracking the 1 seed line.
Mississippi State vs. Georgia – Georgia is on life support.

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) – Don’t be shocked if VT makes a run in the ACC tournament. Buzz Williams can flat out coach.

 

 

Next update will be TOMORROW! Questions? Comments? Sound off on my Twitter or Facebook and I’ll answer any questions

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