Real cold front to bring “Mini-Fall Preview”

COLUMBUS (WCMH) — Summer cold fronts are typically not much to brag about.  They usually bring some relief, but do not pack the punch of a Winter Cold front.

This weekend the longer ranger models are providing hints that this might actually be our first good shot of cooler air in 6+ weeks.  This would be a bonus for your electric bill, as the fans and/or air conditioners could be getting a well needed rest.

Here is the set-up… this week we will have a weak front that will push through, with trailing moisture behind it.  Temps will remain around normal in the mid-80s most of the week, lows will remain a bit on the high side due to higher humidity.

This weekend pop-up storms will form Saturday afternoon/evening pre-front.  Sunday there will be a better chance of storms with the cold front.  This front will be moving as high pressure will be pushing south into our area.

Lets first start on Monday:

Below is the ECMWF  (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) model for Monday morning… post cold front.

Notice the cool pool of air at the 850mb (about a mile above the ground) in blue spilling down over the Great Lakes.

8-15 ecmwfNAZM_850_temp_168

The CMC (Canadian Model) below, shows the same thing with the cooler pool of air spilling south with the high early Monday morning, with low 60s in our area.
8-16 cmc 22-12z

Below the American GFS model shows the same thing, as the high is pushing across the Plains and Upper Midwest, pushing morning lows in Central Ohio Monday into the lower 60s.

8-16 gfs 24-12z

Below is the Canadian Model for Monday evening, and already temps are falling into the low 70s to upper 60s on this model.   Under mainly clear skies, with dry & cool air this seems reasonable.
8-16 cmc 23-0z

As far as forecast highs go during this time period, we still have a very high sun angle, and our days are still quite long, so even a cool air mass will warm efficiently.   Highs will generally stay in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Below is the CMC model for next Tuesday morning as the high settles overhead.   This will compete with next Wednesday morning for the chilliest morning.  Clear skies, little to no wind, dry air, and a cool air mass with give us brisk mornings.

This model actually shows temps in the 50s across most of Central Ohio, with low 60s to the south.

8-16 cmc 23-12z

The Wednesday morning CMC model (below) shows temps pushing into the 50s almost all the way down to the Ohio River.

8-16 cmc 24-12z

Back to the American GFS model for next Wednesday morning, and it confirms that a large area of high pressure will dominate our Wednesday morning, setting up for a cool start.

8-15 gfs 8-24 12z
The Climate Prediction Center puts out 6-10 day outlooks for Temperatures and Precipitation, and the outlook for Sunday- (next) Thursday (below) shows a large portion of the middle of the country experiencing below normal temperatures.

For reference, our normal high next week is 83, and normal low is 63, and this graphic has the entire state in the chance for below normal temps.

8-15 610temp.new

While this may not be a true feel of Autumn next week, it will be a nice change temperature-wise from the past month where temperatures have peaked over 90 almost half of the month.

Next week, I would expect an extended period of highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with some lows in the 50s to low 60s, or slightly below normal temps.

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