David Mazza’s updated snowfall forecast for this Winter (2 months out)

10-20-snow-cover

Columbus (WCMH) – Now that we are officially 2 months from the start of Winter (Dec 21, 544am) its time to tweak the snowfall forecast I made in August.  Also, the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA has released their Winter forecast Thursday.

(**Spoiler Alert: if you do not care to know the background or how I came to my forecast, you just want the numbers, scroll down… and enjoy!!!)

If you remember my August forecast for this Winter…

I looked back at historical data for La Nina seasons as part of my forecast.   At that time, the La Nina forecast was about a 55-60% chance.   That chance is now upped to 70% heading through fall, and still has about a 55% chance of persisting through the Winter of 2016-17.

Again, this is going to be a “weak” La Nina… so here is a rundown of the 11 “weak” La Nina Winter seasons from 1950-2016:

la nina snowfall years

Normally, Columbus sees just under 27″ of snowfall for the season:

Our 30 year running average is at 26.7″, below is the monthly breakdown.

  • Oct.  0.2″
  • Nov.  0.9″
  • Dec.  5.0″
  • Jan.  9.2″
  • Feb.  6.1″
  • Mar.  4.2″
  • Apr.  1.1″

The average over the 11 “weak” La Nina seasons was almost 5″ higher than our normal (26.7″)

Few other notes:

  • NOAA predicts a cool and wetter Winter (Dec-Feb) for the north.
  • NOAA notes that La Nina Winters typically provide more snow in the Great Lakes region
  • November’s outlook does look to be warmer than normal for Ohio
  • December’s outlook should be near normal on temps and precipitation
  • January could end up being near normal temps, and a bit wetter than normal
  • February should be a bit wetter than normal

What this means for the forecast:

  • November, little to no measurable snowfall
  • December will see snowfall unlike the anomaly of last year, near normal snowfall
  • January will be slightly above normal for snow, which goes 1-2″ higher than normal
  • February will be above normal for snowfall
  • March will be near normal for snowfall in the first half of the month

Here is my month by month forecast for snowfall:

10-20-snowfall-by-month

Adding those totals up, I have made a minor adjustment to the snowfall forecast I made in August:

Back in August, I forecast 34″ of snowfall for this Winter…. I have downgraded that number🙂
Remember, our last 4 Winter snowfall totals have been

  • 2015-16:  17.1″
  • 2014-15:  33.4″
  • 2013-14:  56.4″
  • 2012-13:  41.2″

10-20-snowfall

Tell me what you think of my forecast!   If you have any questions about this Winter weather, snowfall, cold weather, or any other type of weather, email me at dmazza@wcmh.com

-Dave

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