Ready or not, snow showers are possible late this week

11-14-cover

Columbus (WCMH) – Ok, its November, and it should come as no shock that we have snowfall in the forecast.   Yes, this is NOT going to be shoveling snowfall, but just “hey guess what I saw today” kind of snow.

 

Here is the set up:

We have a massive system off the west coast that is going to crash into the Sierra Nevada and Rockies, dig south and then drive through the plains.   Yes, its going to be awesome ahead of this system, as much of the mid-section of the country should see a massive warm-up.

Then the plunge and the moisture arrive with the low and trailing cold front, that could bring a massive first snowfall of the season to our friends to the west.

 

Here is what I am expecting at home (don’t get too worried or excited):

As this low tracks across the mid-section, we are going to see temps possibly 15+ degrees above normal on Friday with strong southerly flow.  The good news is, this should keep us quite warm Friday night/Saturday morning when the frontal moisture arrives.

(Below is the GFS model from Friday afternoon at 3pm)

11-14-3p-friday

 

On Saturday that front will push east introducing the colder air behind it.   The low will continue to drive northeast into Ontario, so this front should be all rain on Saturday. (see below)

11-14-2pm-sat

 

Here is the problem… the proximity of the low to us will keep enough wrap around flow & moisture, that we could see some light returns overnight Saturday into Sunday early morning.   The air we will have at this time should be plenty cold enough that we could see some light snow flurries mixed in with cold rain showers.

11-14-7a-sun

 

Again, this will not be an abundance of moisture to work with, so what I am anticipating is some light snow flurries possible, with the best chances north of I-70 late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  We could see a few spots southeast in the hills that could see some snow flurries mixed in too.

Below is a higher resolution graphic with precip type of the GFS model for early Sunday morning.

11-14-full-graphic

 

At this time, I would not call this even a dusting in our area, but just some light snow flurries.   It is not uncommon at all to see snow flurries by this time.  In fact, our first measurable snowfall (0.01″ or greater) on average occurs on November 21st (a day later).

 

When did we see first snow flurries last few years?

  • In 2015 we had a light covering of snow in Granville & Johnstown on the 22nd of November
  • In 2014 we had our first dusting on October 4th, and had 3.8″ of snowfall on the 17th of November
  • In 2013 we had our first dusting on the 23rd (and 24th) of October, and our first measurable snowfall (0.3″) on the 11th of November, ending with almost 5″ that month
  • In 2012 we had our first dusting the 29th of October, and measurable on the 30th of October

 

If you have any questions about snow, first snow, cold temps or any other weather, please email me: dmazza@wcmh.com

-Dave

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