White Christmas? The chances are going down

Columbus (WCMH) – We are less than 10 days away from Christmas, and even though this month has started off on a very cold note, changes appear to be on the way.

I am starting to see changes on the way, and I am lowering the chance of seeing a “White Christmas” to about 20% for this year.   Yes, we have had a very cold past week, but the weekend temp surge and next weeks’ warming trend could melt most of what we have gained of the white stuff so far this month.

 

Right now, we still have a solid couple of inches of snow on the ground in most spots in the state.

12-15-snow-cover

So far this year, we have had 4.8″ of snowfall here in Columbus this month, making it the snowiest December since 2013.

 

Today was one of the coldest days of the year, but some major changes are on the way for the start of the weekend:

Highs today were more than 25 below normal, but by Saturday could be almost 10 above normal.

12-15-temps

Also, Saturday looks to be wet during the day with rainfall.   In fact rainfall on Saturday may approach a half inch or more in spots.

With temps running 15-20 above freezing and rainfall, much of the snowfall will melt during Saturday.

 

12-15fill_98qwbg

 

Another blast of cold air will filter into our area to end the weekend.

We could pick up some additional snowfall on Sunday to re-coat surfaces before the day is done.

 

Work week warm-up with above normal temperatures coming:

Next week will start off cold again with temps in the 20s on Monday for highs, but we will have sunshine so any leftover snowfall will compact a bit.

Then we will see a string of more typical, to above normal temperatures next week.   Temps in the mid 30s on Tuesday, close to 40 Wednesday, and above 40 on Thursday with rain late.

Another system will roar in Thursday night into Friday, but it does appear a lot of it will be rain, and then end as snow showers Friday.   This appears to be our best last hope of keeping snowfall for a “White Christmas”

 

Climate Prediction Center has us with a better chance of above normal temps finally.

Below is the 6-10 (Dec 21-25) forecast for temperatures, the eastern half of the country is projected to be above normal for the period.

 

12-15610temp-new

 

Here is the 8-14 day forecast from the CPC (Dec 23-29), and it actually expands the above normal temps to the west too.

 

12-15814temp-new

The models are hinting at another system coming into our area late Christmas Day, into the 26th.   This system will bring rain and warming temperatures for Christmas day, and possible snow on the back side after Christmas.

This will be a system we will be watching next weekend, but it does look like it will build warm air north ahead of it, then bring a cool down for a day before mild temps resume.

 

Because of the lack of great snow on the ground, and an extended period of warmer weather coming, I think we have a low chance of a “White Christmas”   But stay tuned, Santa just needs to drop a quick shot of cool air down and maybe help our cause.

 

-Dave

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