Snowfall forecast for Winter on track…. what to expect

Columbus (WCMH) – Back in the Summer we thought it would be fun to give you a “very early” preview of what to expect this Winter.   I updated it about a month later in the fall with my current snowfall forecast.

 

10-20-snowfall

 

As of now, I have left the forecast alone at 32″.  In fact, my forecast for the first two months has been right on track.

10-20-snowfall-by-month

 

So far for the 2016-2017 Winter season, here are the snowfall totals we have had

  • November: Trace
  • December:  5.4″
  • January: 0.9″ (so far through 1/6)

 

So how likely is it that we will still see 11″ of snowfall this month:

I think that 11″ will end up being on the higher end of possible snowfall for the month.  Yes, we will experience some of the coldest air of the season tonight and this weekend, but it is going to be dry.

Looking ahead to next week, it appears we will have a chance to add a bit of snow to the totals Monday night & Tuesday morning, but rain appears to be the primary precip. type next week.

 

In fact, looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks bring wetter than normal weather, but also warmer, which would favor rain vs. snow.

1-6-17-610temp-new

Remember for the period of January 12th through the 16th, the normal high temperature is 36

1-6-17-814temp-new

As we head to the middle part of the month, January 14th through the 20th, the normal high temp is between 36° and 37°, so above normal temps would be higher than where we typically see snow.

 

Bottom line, if we are going to squeeze out 10″ more of snow, it is going to have to come in the last 1/3rd of the month:

The next two weeks look low end for snowfall across our area at this point, with maybe an inch or two possible, with more rain.   It is possible we get snow by the later half this the 2nd week.

Here is the interesting part, normally in the month of January since 1885 we have had almost 8″ (7.9″) of snowfall.  So my forecast of 11″ is above normal.

But 11″ of snowfall for the month of January would only put us at the 37th snowiest January since 1885.

For the record, the snowiest January on record was January of 1978 at 34.4″

 

Since late January/early February is always our coldest part of our Winter, and our wetter than normal look to the month, I still think it is possible to squeeze a lot more snow out by the end of the month.

 

If you ever have questions about snow, winter weather, or any other weather, email me: dmazza@wcmh.com

 

-Dave

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